Within the widespread uncertainty surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.
The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning marked its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.
The decision to unilaterally attack another state and capture its head of state – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.
A man who came to office pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a renegade nation.
He holds the view that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.
George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.
Put aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden further adventurism.
No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.
Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.
Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.