How This Strange Season Redefined the Traditional Coach of the Year Mould.

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

However this year's field is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and longtime also-rans rising collectively. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

Where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

Still