A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
